← Serie A 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 63% | 70% | 1.53 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.27 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 14% | 11% | 7.27 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SSC Napoli −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Udinese Calcio −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 59% | 1.86 | value: +10% |
| Under | 47% | 41% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |