← Serie A 2021-22 · Fri, Mar 18, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Volpi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 54% | 60% | 1.81 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
| Spezia win | 22% | 17% | 4.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| US Sassuolo Calcio −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 45% | 2.32 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Viktor Kovalenko · Spezia |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 20' | 🟨 | Matheus Henrique · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 36' | ⚽ | Daniele Verde · Spezia |
| 44' | 🟨 | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 48' | ⚽ | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Giulio Maggiore · Spezia |
| 78' | ⚽ | Kaan Ayhan · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 80' | 🟨 | Martin Erlić · Spezia |
| 81' | ⚽ | Gianluca Scamacca · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 260.00 | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1747.47 | 1593.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.19 | -10.16 |
| eye test v1 | 1.00 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.78 |
| league points | 40.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 6.16 | 6.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.05 | 25.03 |
| state index | 0.89 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |