← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Mar 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 46% | 39% | 2.15 | fair |
| Venezia FC win | 29% | 28% | 3.55 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.93 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia FC +0.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 51% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 49% | 2.60 | value: +27% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Giacomo Raspadori · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 15' | 🟨 | Mattia Aramu · Venezia FC |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 19' | 🟨 | Luca Fiordilino · Venezia FC |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Gianluca Scamacca · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 34' | ⚽ | Thomas Henry · Venezia FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Antonio Junior Vacca · Venezia FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Gianluca Scamacca · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 49' | 🟨 | Michael Svoboda · Venezia FC |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 10 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Venezia FC | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Pierluigi Penzo |
| coach days |
| 582.00 |
| 248.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1504.62 | 1668.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.39 | 15.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 22.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.95 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.17 |
| state index | -0.54 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |