← Serie A 2021-22 · Sat, Mar 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Irrati
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 54% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.73 | value: +6% |
| Sampdoria win | 19% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 46% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 54% | 1.97 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · Udinese Calcio |
| 12' | ⚽ | Destiny Udogie · Udinese Calcio |
| 13' | ⚽ | Francesco Caputo · Sampdoria |
| 44' | 🟨 | Roberto Pereyra · Udinese Calcio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Walace · Udinese Calcio |
| 63' | 🟨 | Albin Ekdal · Sampdoria |
| 68' | 🟨 | Tolgay Arslan · Udinese Calcio |
| 68' | 🟨 | Nicola Murru · Sampdoria |
| 73' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Becão · Udinese Calcio |
| 87' | 🟨 | Gerard Deulofeu · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days | 94.00 | 63.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1655.17 | 1651.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.50 | 14.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.76 |
| league points | 26.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.84 | 4.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.70 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 26.87 | 29.45 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |