← Serie A 2021-22 · Mon, Feb 7, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Valeri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 35% | 37% | 2.83 | value: +6% |
| Salernitana win | 35% | 33% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Salernitana +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Spezia +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 54% | 1.85 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 46% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Simone Verdi · Salernitana |
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Rey Manaj · Spezia |
| 15' | 🟨 | Kelvin Amian · Spezia |
| 16' | ⚽ | Simone Verdi · Salernitana |
| 30' | 🟨 | Lys Mousset · Salernitana |
| 30' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniele Verde · Spezia |
| 53' | 🟨 | Federico Fazio · Salernitana |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jakub Kiwior · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Salernitana |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aurelien Nguiamba · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Salernitana | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Arechi |
| coach days | 6.00 | 221.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.55 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1449.75 | 1543.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.58 | 47.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.75 |
| league points | 11.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 27.60 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 15.24 | 15.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.52 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.60 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.96 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | -1.13 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.45 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |