← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Feb 6, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Prontera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 78% | 82% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 12% | 7.00 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 8% | 6% | 14.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC −1.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Cagliari Calcio −1.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 70% | 1.50 | value: +6% |
| Under | 36% | 30% | 2.73 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Dalbert · Cagliari Calcio |
| 35' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi · Cagliari Calcio |
| 50' | ⚽ | Gastón Pereiro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 52' | 🟥 | Juan Musso · Atalanta BC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Davide Zappacosta · Atalanta BC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 64' | ⚽ | José Luis Palomino · Atalanta BC |
| 68' | ⚽ | Gastón Pereiro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alessio Cragno · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 2076.00 | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1912.02 | 1584.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.46 | 21.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| league points | 43.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 14.66 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.21 | 24.15 |
| state index | 0.93 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |