← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Jan 9, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fabbri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 54% | 48% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 20% | 26% | 4.77 | value: +24% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio +0.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Atalanta BC +0.75 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 56% | 1.90 | value: +7% |
| Under | 48% | 44% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 22' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · Atalanta BC |
| 30' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Becão · Udinese Calcio |
| 43' | ⚽ | Ruslan Malinovskyi · Atalanta BC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Gerard Deulofeu · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Atalanta BC |
| 59' | ⚽ (og) | Berat Djimsiti · Udinese Calcio |
| 76' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · Atalanta BC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Berat Djimsiti · Atalanta BC |
| 88' | ⚽ | Beto · Udinese Calcio |
| 89' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 8 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| ⚽ |
| Joakim Mæhle · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matteo Pessina · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 39.00 | 2048.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1585.25 | 1827.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.97 | -12.49 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| league points | 20.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 21.82 | 18.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.33 | 27.99 |
| state index | 0.51 | 1.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |