← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Jan 9, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Volpi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 39% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
| Empoli win | 36% | 35% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Empoli +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 64% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 36% | 2.84 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 16' | ⚽ | Liam Henderson · Empoli |
| 24' | ⚽ | Giacomo Raspadori · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 49' | 🟨 | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 59' | 🟨 | Mattia Viti · Empoli |
| 60' | 🟨 | Mattia Viti · Empoli |
| 60' | 🟥 | Mattia Viti · Empoli |
| 67' | ⚽ | Gianluca Scamacca · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 69' | 🟨 | Georgios Kyriakopoulos · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 71' | ⚽ | Giacomo Raspadori · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 25 |
| 4 | On target | 14 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani |
| 79' | 🟨 | Maxime López · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gianluca Scamacca · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 222.00 | 192.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 1.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1654.36 | 1729.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.22 | -24.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.86 | 0.87 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| league points | 28.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 2.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | 1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.21 | 28.03 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |