← Serie A 2021-22 · Thu, Jan 6, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Chiffi
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 42% | 38% | 2.34 | fair |
| AS Roma win | 30% | 35% | 3.23 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| AC Milan −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 61% | 1.79 | value: +10% |
| Under | 45% | 39% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Tammy Abraham · AS Roma |
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Olivier Giroud · AC Milan |
| 17' | ⚽ | Junior Messias · AC Milan |
| 18' | 🟨 | Nicolò Zaniolo · AS Roma |
| 40' | ⚽ | Tammy Abraham · AS Roma |
| 44' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rick Karsdorp · AS Roma |
| 56' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · AC Milan |
| 74' | 🟨 | Rick Karsdorp · AS Roma |
| 74' | 🟥 | Rick Karsdorp · AS Roma |
| 81' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 6 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| ⚽ |
| Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 84' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟥 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 828.00 | 189.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 3.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1899.56 | 1809.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.38 | 21.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 44.60 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 42.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 14.91 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.21 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.37 | 27.19 |
| state index | 1.27 | 1.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |