← Serie A 2021-22 · Wed, Dec 22, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 47% | 43% | 2.23 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.40 | value: +3% |
| Venezia FC win | 24% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia FC +0.5 | 55% | 1.79 |
| SS Lazio +0.5 | 45% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 49% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 51% | 2.19 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Pedro · SS Lazio |
| 30' | ⚽ | Francesco Forte · Venezia FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luiz Felipe · SS Lazio |
| 48' | ⚽ | Francesco Acerbi · SS Lazio |
| 54' | 🟨 | Pedro · SS Lazio |
| 55' | 🟨 | Domen Črnigoj · Venezia FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Toma Bašić · SS Lazio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu · Venezia FC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Mattia Caldara · Venezia FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Tanner Tessmann · Venezia FC |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Venezia FC | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Pierluigi Penzo |
| ⚽ |
| Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 508.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1522.73 | 1702.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.89 | 2.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.80 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| league points | 17.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 2.94 | 4.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 27.63 |
| state index | -0.72 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |