← Serie A 2021-22 · Mon, Dec 6, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Paterna
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 41% | 34% | 2.45 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 31% | 38% | 3.32 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio −0.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Empoli −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 50% | 1.82 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 50% | 2.09 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Fabiano Parisi · Empoli |
| 22' | ⚽ | Gerard Deulofeu · Udinese Calcio |
| 30' | 🟨 | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 41' | 🟨 | Brandon Soppy · Udinese Calcio |
| 47' | 🟨 | Szymon Żurkowski · Empoli |
| 49' | ⚽ | Petar Stojanović · Empoli |
| 59' | ⚽ | Nedim Bajrami · Empoli |
| 67' | 🟨 | Simone Romagnoli · Empoli |
| 78' | ⚽ | Andrea Pinamonti · Empoli |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ilija Nestorovski · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 19 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| venue | Stadio Carlo Castellani |
| 🟨 |
| Lorenzo Tonelli · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 188.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1628.14 | 1648.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.54 | 2.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| league points | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.27 | 25.98 |
| state index | 0.34 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | -1.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |