← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Dec 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 42% | 48% | 2.40 | value: +15% |
| Spezia win | 31% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.58 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia +0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 55% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 45% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Arkadiusz Reca · Spezia |
| 4' | 🟨 | Giulio Maggiore · Spezia |
| 26' | 🟨 | Jacopo Sala · Spezia |
| 35' | ⚽ | Rey Manaj · Spezia |
| 44' | 🟨 | Davide Frattesi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 47' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Gyasi · Spezia |
| 66' | ⚽ | Giacomo Raspadori · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Georgios Kyriakopoulos · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 79' | ⚽ | Giacomo Raspadori · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 85' | 🟨 | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | US Sassuolo Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Petko Hristov · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 157.00 | 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1495.51 | 1678.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.88 | -4.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| league points | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 3.85 | 3.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.35 | 1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.58 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |