← Serie A 2021-22 · Thu, Dec 2, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Piccinini
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 59% | 54% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.97 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 16% | 26% | 6.00 | value: +55% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 60% | 1.89 | value: +14% |
| Under | 48% | 40% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Beto · Udinese Calcio |
| 29' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Becão · Udinese Calcio |
| 32' | ⚽ | Beto · Udinese Calcio |
| 34' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 37' | 🟨 | Patric · SS Lazio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 44' | ⚽ | Nahuel Molina · Udinese Calcio |
| 51' | ⚽ | Pedro · SS Lazio |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nahuel Molina · Udinese Calcio |
| 56' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 57' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| 🟨 |
| Patric · SS Lazio |
| 57' | 🟥 | Patric · SS Lazio |
| 69' | 🟨 | Nahuel Molina · Udinese Calcio |
| 69' | 🟥 | Nahuel Molina · Udinese Calcio |
| 79' | ⚽ | Francesco Acerbi · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brandon Soppy · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Destiny Udogie · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Walace · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tolgay Arslan · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 184.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1769.54 | 1643.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.53 | -4.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| league points | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.34 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.94 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 29.17 | 25.84 |
| state index | 0.50 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | -1.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |