← Serie A 2021-22 · Sat, Nov 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Abisso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 76% | 79% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.50 | fair |
| Spezia win | 9% | 8% | 12.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia −1.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Atalanta BC −1.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 66% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 34% | 2.92 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Gyasi · Spezia |
| 10' | 🟨 | Teun Koopmeiners · Atalanta BC |
| 11' | ⚽ | M'Bala Nzola · Spezia |
| 18' | ⚽ | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jacopo Sala · Spezia |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
| 41' | ⚽ | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Petko Hristov · Spezia |
| 71' | 🟨 | Mario Pašalić · Atalanta BC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · Atalanta BC |
| 89' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Gewiss Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Ruslan Malinovskyi · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | ⚽ | M'Bala Nzola · Spezia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1998.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1824.85 | 1510.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.60 | 2.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| league points | 22.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.80 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 13.76 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.43 | — |
| state index | 1.16 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |