← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Oct 31, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Fabbri
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 73% | 77% | 1.34 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 17% | 13% | 5.52 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 10% | 10% | 10.12 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Salernitana +1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| SSC Napoli +1.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 62% | 1.59 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 38% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand