← Serie A 2021-22 · Wed, Oct 27, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Prontera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 53% | 60% | 1.85 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.04 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 23% | 17% | 4.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria +0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Atalanta BC +0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 61% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 39% | 2.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Francesco Caputo · Sampdoria |
| 14' | 🟨 | José Luis Palomino · Atalanta BC |
| 17' | ⚽ (og) | Kristoffer Askildsen · Atalanta BC |
| 21' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Atalanta BC |
| 26' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · Sampdoria |
| 29' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Askildsen · Sampdoria |
| 36' | 🟨 | Omar Colley · Sampdoria |
| 65' | 🟨 | Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
| ⚽ |
| Josip Iličić · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 118.00 | 1974.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1609.26 | 1817.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.27 | -0.89 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| league points | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 4.91 | 3.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 22.98 | 28.89 |
| state index | -0.34 | 1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |