← Serie A 2021-22 · Sat, Oct 16, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Prontera
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 61% | 74% | 1.59 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 23% | 17% | 4.37 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 17% | 9% | 6.01 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC −1 | 51% | 1.94 |
| AC Milan −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 62% | 1.69 | value: +5% |
| Under | 43% | 38% | 2.27 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · Hellas Verona FC |
| 7' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · Hellas Verona FC |
| 24' | ⚽ (pen) | Antonín Barák · Hellas Verona FC |
| 25' | 🟨 | Nikola Kalinić · Hellas Verona FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Nicolò Casale · Hellas Verona FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Hellas Verona FC |
| 59' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · AC Milan |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 78' | ⚽ (og) | Koray Günter · AC Milan |
| 81' | 🟨 | Fodé Ballo-Touré · AC Milan |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 746.00 | 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1841.74 | 1564.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.97 | 23.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 46.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.60 |
| league points | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.71 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.08 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.44 | — |
| state index | 1.60 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |