← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Oct 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Camplone
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Hellas Verona FC win | 61% | 55% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | 4.33 | value: +25% |
| Spezia win | 17% | 16% | 6.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Spezia −1 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Hellas Verona FC −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 55% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 45% | 2.44 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |