← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Oct 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Orsato
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria win | 45% | 42% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.36 | value: +10% |
| Udinese Calcio win | 27% | 25% | 3.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria −0.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Udinese Calcio −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 53% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 47% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Roberto Pereyra · Udinese Calcio |
| 24' | ⚽ (og) | Jens Stryger Larsen · Sampdoria |
| 43' | ⚽ | Beto · Udinese Calcio |
| 47' | 🟨 | Marco Silvestri · Udinese Calcio |
| 48' | ⚽ (pen) | Fabio Quagliarella · Sampdoria |
| 53' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · Sampdoria |
| 69' | ⚽ | Antonio Candreva · Sampdoria |
| 72' | 🟨 | Roberto Pereyra · Udinese Calcio |
| 77' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Askildsen · Sampdoria |
| 78' | 🟨 | Samir · Udinese Calcio |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
| 82' |
| ⚽ |
| Fernando Forestieri · Udinese Calcio |
| 86' | 🟨 | Bartosz Bereszyński · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Albin Ekdal · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fernando Forestieri · Udinese Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Becão · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 94.00 | 702.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1700.79 | 1638.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.02 | -5.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.59 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.99 | 27.14 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |