← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Oct 3, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: D. Massa
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 41% | 36% | 2.43 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.40 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| SS Lazio +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 52% | 1.79 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 48% | 2.13 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Musa Barrow · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 17' | ⚽ | Arthur Theate · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 52' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 53' | 🟨 | Adama Soumaoro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Pedro · SS Lazio |
| 68' | ⚽ | Aaron Hickey · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Manuel Lazzari · SS Lazio |
| 76' | 🟨 | Francesco Acerbi · SS Lazio |
| 76' | 🟥 | Francesco Acerbi · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 🟨 |
| Luiz Felipe · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1006.00 | 124.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1639.00 | 1790.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.83 | -2.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 48.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | — |
| league points | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 2.65 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.27 | 28.01 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |