← Serie A 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 25, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Doveri
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 36% | 32% | 2.75 | fair |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 34% | 31% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 36% | 3.26 | value: +18% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Hellas Verona FC +0 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 54% | 1.88 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 46% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Hellas Verona FC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Nikola Maksimović · Genoa CFC |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Antonín Barák · Hellas Verona FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Valon Behrami · Genoa CFC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Goran Pandev · Genoa CFC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Koray Günter · Hellas Verona FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ivan Ilić · Hellas Verona FC |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Mattia Destro · Genoa CFC |
| 85' | ⚽ | Mattia Destro · Genoa CFC |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Nikola Kalinić · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 298.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1571.44 | 1548.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.54 | -4.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.30 | 46.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | — |
| league points | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 4.09 | 3.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |