← Serie A 2021-22 · Tue, Sep 21, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 53% | 50% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.63 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 21% | 24% | 4.77 | value: +13% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Genoa CFC −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 47% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 53% | 2.02 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 42' | 🟨 | Mohamed Fares · Genoa CFC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Aaron Hickey · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 55' | ⚽ | Mattia Destro · Genoa CFC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Mattia Destro · Genoa CFC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Kevin Bonifazi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Valon Behrami · Genoa CFC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Gary Medel · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 84' | 🟨 | Zinho Vanheusden · Genoa CFC |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Marko Arnautovic · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 89' |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 994.00 | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1655.85 | 1648.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.18 | 3.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 46.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| league points | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 3.02 | 3.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.35 | 28.14 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |