← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Sep 19, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 45% | 52% | 2.20 | value: +14% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 29% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.71 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma +0.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Hellas Verona FC +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 55% | 1.68 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 45% | 2.31 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Jordan Veretout · AS Roma |
| 30' | 🟨 | Davide Faraoni · Hellas Verona FC |
| 36' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 49' | ⚽ | Antonín Barák · Hellas Verona FC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Antonín Barák · Hellas Verona FC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · Hellas Verona FC |
| 58' | ⚽ (og) | Ivan Ilić · AS Roma |
| 63' | ⚽ | Davide Faraoni · Hellas Verona FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante · AS Roma |
| 83' | 🟨 | Martin Hongla · Hellas Verona FC |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hellas Verona FC | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| 86' |
| 🟨 |
| Nicolò Casale · Hellas Verona FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 18.00 | 80.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1533.63 | 1780.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.44 | 39.50 |
| eye test v1 | -1.07 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.10 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.75 |
| league points | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 5.89 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.92 |
| state index | -0.85 | 1.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |