← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Aug 29, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Abisso
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AS Roma win | 65% | 62% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 13% | 20% | 7.50 | value: +47% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Salernitana +1.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| AS Roma +1.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 61% | 1.81 | value: +11% |
| Under | 47% | 39% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 21 |
| 0 | On target | 10 |
| 1 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand