← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Aug 29, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Serra
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 65% | 71% | 1.49 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.70 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 14% | 8% | 7.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio −1.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| AC Milan −1.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 55% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 45% | 2.39 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Dalbert · Cagliari Calcio |
| 12' | ⚽ | Sandro Tonali · AC Milan |
| 15' | ⚽ | Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 17' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
| 24' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · AC Milan |
| 38' | 🟨 | Alessandro Deiola · Cagliari Calcio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Kevin Strootman · Cagliari Calcio |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Olivier Giroud · AC Milan |
| 62' | 🟨 | Diego Godín · Cagliari Calcio |
| 73' | 🟨 | Brahim Díaz · AC Milan |
| 84' |
| 4 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza |
| 🟨 |
| Nahitan Nández · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 698.00 | 209.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1886.50 | 1628.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 59.12 | 7.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.71 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.09 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.81 | 26.66 |
| state index | 1.88 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |