← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Aug 22, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 79% | 82% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 7.10 | fair |
| Venezia FC win | 7% | 5% | 15.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia FC −2 | 52% | 1.89 |
| SSC Napoli −2 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 64% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 36% | 3.00 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Luca Fiordilino · Venezia FC |
| 22' | 🟥 | Victor Osimhen · SSC Napoli |
| 30' | 🟨 | Mattia Caldara · Venezia FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Daan Heymans · Venezia FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tyronne Ebuehi · Venezia FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Francesco Forte · Venezia FC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Fabián Ruiz · SSC Napoli |
| 61' | 🟨 | Pietro Ceccaroni · Venezia FC |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 72' | ⚽ | Eljif Elmas · SSC Napoli |
| 75' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Venezia FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |
| 🟨 |
| Tanner Tessmann · Venezia FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 113.00 | 386.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1881.93 | 1526.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.70 | 19.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.20 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 28.59 |
| state index | 1.56 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |