β Serie A 2021-22 Β· Sun, Aug 22, 04:30 PM UTC Β· ref: A. Rapuano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 63% | 58% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.52 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 15% | 20% | 6.50 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 β1 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Salernitana β1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 54% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 46% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | π¨ | Stefan Strandberg Β· Salernitana |
| 34' | π¨ | Stefan Strandberg Β· Salernitana |
| 34' | π₯ | Stefan Strandberg Β· Salernitana |
| 41' | π¨ | Roberto Soriano Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
| 50' | π¨ | Roberto Soriano Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
| 50' | π₯ | Roberto Soriano Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
| 52' | β½ (pen) | Federico Bonazzoli Β· Salernitana |
| 55' | π¨ | Jerdy Schouten Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
| 59' | β½ | Lorenzo De Silvestri Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
| 70' | β½ | Mamadou Coulibaly Β· Salernitana |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | β |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 74' | β½ | Marko Arnautovic Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
| 77' | β½ | Lorenzo De Silvestri Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
| 79' | π¨ | PaweΕ JaroszyΕski Β· Salernitana |
| 87' | π¨ | Kevin Bonifazi Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
| 88' | π¨ | Jerdy Schouten Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
| 88' | π₯ | Jerdy Schouten Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | π¨ | Nicola Sansone Β· Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 964.00 | 386.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | β |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | β |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | β |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | β |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | β |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | β |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | β |
| elo | 1559.49 | 1518.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.20 | 29.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | β |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | β |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.80 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | β |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | β |
| skill v1 | 1.10 | -1.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.98 | β |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -1.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |