← Serie A 2021-22 · Sun, Aug 22, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 63% | 58% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.52 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 15% | 20% | 6.50 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 −1 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Salernitana −1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 54% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 46% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Stefan Strandberg · Salernitana |
| 34' | 🟨 | Stefan Strandberg · Salernitana |
| 34' | 🟥 | Stefan Strandberg · Salernitana |
| 41' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 50' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 50' | 🟥 | Roberto Soriano · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Federico Bonazzoli · Salernitana |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jerdy Schouten · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 59' | ⚽ | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 70' | ⚽ | Mamadou Coulibaly · Salernitana |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 74' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 77' | ⚽ | Lorenzo De Silvestri · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 79' | 🟨 | Paweł Jaroszyński · Salernitana |
| 87' | 🟨 | Kevin Bonifazi · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jerdy Schouten · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 88' | 🟥 | Jerdy Schouten · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicola Sansone · Bologna FC 1909 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 964.00 | 386.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1639.38 | 1528.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.31 | 28.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.80 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.10 | -1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.98 | 27.22 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -1.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |