← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, May 23, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Chiffi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 76% | 72% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 22% | 6.74 | value: +45% |
| Hellas Verona FC win | 9% | 7% | 11.05 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona FC −1.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| SSC Napoli −1.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 67% | 1.37 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Hirving Lozano · SSC Napoli |
| 32' | 🟨 | — · Hellas Verona FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Paweł Dawidowicz · Hellas Verona FC |
| 54' | 🟨 | Destiny Udogie · Hellas Verona FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Federico Dimarco · Hellas Verona FC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Amir Rrahmani · SSC Napoli |
| 62' | 🟨 | — · SSC Napoli |
| 62' | 🟨 | — · Hellas Verona FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Davide Faraoni · Hellas Verona FC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Tiemoué Bakayoko · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elseid Hysaj |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 25 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Hellas Verona FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 22.00 | 722.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1889.33 | 1618.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.28 | -19.38 |
| eye test v1 | 1.42 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.70 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| league points | 76.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.34 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.27 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.93 | 27.01 |
| state index | 1.74 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |