← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, May 16, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Abisso
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 66% | 51% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 26% | 5.21 | value: +33% |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 14% | 24% | 7.00 | value: +66% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina +1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| SSC Napoli +1.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 59% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 41% | 2.75 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟥 | Bartłomiej Drągowski · ACF Fiorentina |
| -5' | 🟨 | Nikita Contini · SSC Napoli |
| 21' | 🟨 | Amir Rrahmani · SSC Napoli |
| 31' | 🟨 | Nikola Milenković · ACF Fiorentina |
| 43' | 🟨 | Franck Ribéry · ACF Fiorentina |
| 49' | 🟨 | Martín Cáceres · ACF Fiorentina |
| 56' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 61' | 🟨 | Gaetano Castrovilli · ACF Fiorentina |
| 67' | ⚽ (og) | Lorenzo Venuti · SSC Napoli |
| 79' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days |
| 76.00 |
| 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1612.47 | 1802.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.55 | 29.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 1.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 66.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| league points | 39.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 3.75 | 4.66 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | 1.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 24.96 | 26.35 |
| state index | 0.39 | 1.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |