← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, May 15, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Calvarese
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 46% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 29% | 27% | 3.52 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.86 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| FC Internazionale Milano −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 60% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 40% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Dejan Kulusevski · Juventus FC |
| 20' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Juventus FC |
| 23' | 🟨 | Matteo Darmian · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 24' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo · Juventus FC |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Romelu Lukaku · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 45' | ⚽ | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Juventus FC |
| 55' | 🟥 | Rodrigo Bentancur · Juventus FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Lautaro Martínez · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 77' | 🟨 | Alessandro Bastoni · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 83' | ⚽ (og) |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| 85' | 🟨 | Giorgio Chiellini · Juventus FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Marcelo Brozović · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcelo Brozović · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 90' | 🟥 | Marcelo Brozović · FC Internazionale Milano |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 14.00 |
| 745.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1815.47 | 1922.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.01 | 6.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 72.00 | 88.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 89.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 2.89 | 2.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.48 | 1.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 28.11 |
| state index | 0.80 | 1.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |