← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, May 15, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Orsato
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 38% | 37% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Spezia win | 30% | 33% | 3.25 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Spezia +0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Torino FC +0.25 | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 60% | 1.84 | value: +11% |
| Over | 47% | 40% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Riccardo Saponara · Spezia |
| 27' | 🟨 | Kevin Agudelo · Spezia |
| 32' | 🟨 | Mërgim Vojvoda · Torino FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Tommaso Pobega · Spezia |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | M'Bala Nzola · Spezia |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 74' | ⚽ | M'Bala Nzola · Spezia |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alessandro Buongiorno · Torino FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Diego Farias · Spezia |
| 83' | 🟨 | Bremer · |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 25 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |
| 84' | ⚽ | Martin Erlić · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Simone Verdi · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 684.00 |
| 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1514.28 | 1564.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.70 | -14.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| league points | 35.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 2.76 | 2.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.06 |
| state index | -0.61 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |