← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, May 15, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Marinelli
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 82% | 69% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 19% | 8.15 | value: +56% |
| Genoa CFC win | 6% | 11% | 16.56 | value: +89% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Genoa CFC +2.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Atalanta BC +2.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 70% | 64% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 36% | 3.40 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris |