← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, May 8, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 52% | 47% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +8% |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 23% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| ACF Fiorentina +0.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 62% | 1.67 | value: +4% |
| Under | 41% | 38% | 2.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Venuti · ACF Fiorentina |
| 28' | 🟨 | Francesco Acerbi · SS Lazio |
| 32' | ⚽ | Dušan Vlahović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 43' | 🟨 | Dušan Vlahović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 58' | 🟨 | Germán Pezzella · ACF Fiorentina |
| 60' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ştefan Radu · SS Lazio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Luiz Felipe · SS Lazio |
| 77' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · SS Lazio |
| 89' | ⚽ | Dušan Vlahović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 8 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 🟨 |
| Martín Cáceres · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Andreas Pereira · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 68.00 | 1863.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1673.04 | 1835.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.96 | 18.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| league points | 35.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 6.24 | 6.34 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.70 | 30.34 |
| state index | -0.05 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.06 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |