← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, May 8, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Irrati
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 63% | 64% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.66 | fair |
| Spezia win | 15% | 15% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SSC Napoli +1 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Spezia +1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 60% | 1.56 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 40% | 2.59 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Alberto Picco |