← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, May 2, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 65% | 61% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.05 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 16% | 19% | 6.28 | value: +21% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio +1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Atalanta BC +1.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 65% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 31% | 35% | 3.20 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟥 | Pierluigi Gollini · Atalanta BC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Marlon · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 32' | ⚽ | Robin Gosens · Atalanta BC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Vlad Chiricheş · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Manuel Locatelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pedro Obiang · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 53' | 🟨 | Gian Marco Ferrari · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marlon · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 75' | 🟥 | Marlon · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 78' | 🟨 | Berat Djimsiti |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1036.00 |
| 1796.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1659.58 | 1846.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.95 | 21.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | 1.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| league points | 52.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.76 | 6.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 2.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.32 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 23.56 | 27.67 |
| state index | 0.93 | 1.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.59 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |