← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, May 2, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: P. Giacomelli
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 66% | 70% | 1.49 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.78 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 14% | 9% | 7.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC −1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| SS Lazio −1.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 61% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 39% | 2.47 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Joaquín Correa · SS Lazio |
| 32' | 🟨 | Davide Biraschi · Genoa CFC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Genoa CFC |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 47' | ⚽ (og) | Adam Marušić · Genoa CFC |
| 48' | ⚽ | Luis Alberto · SS Lazio |
| 56' | ⚽ | Joaquín Correa · SS Lazio |
| 70' | 🟨 | Andrea Masiello · Genoa CFC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · SS Lazio |
| 80' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| ⚽ (pen) |
| Gianluca Scamacca · Genoa CFC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mohamed Fares · SS Lazio |
| 81' | ⚽ | Eldor Shomurodov · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francesco Cassata · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1857.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1832.05 | 1642.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.29 | -1.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.73 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| league points | 61.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 5.66 | 7.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 31.05 | 30.37 |
| state index | 1.21 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |