← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 24, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Rapuano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 50% | 57% | 1.97 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| Crotone win | 25% | 19% | 4.11 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crotone −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 −0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 70% | 1.67 | value: +17% |
| Under | 42% | 30% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Lisandro Magallán · Crotone |
| 29' | ⚽ | Hernani · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 42' | ⚽ | Simy · Crotone |
| 45' | ⚽ | Adam Ounas · Crotone |
| 49' | ⚽ | Gervinho · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 54' | ⚽ | Valentin Mihăilă · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 56' | 🟨 | Gastón Brugman · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Simy · Crotone |
| 70' | 🟨 | Junior Messias · Crotone |
| 76' | 🟨 | Andreas Cornelius · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Ennio Tardini |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eduardo Henrique · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 113.00 |
| 54.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1474.04 | 1432.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.23 | -32.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 2.89 | 2.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 0.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.47 | — |
| state index | -0.82 | -1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |