← Serie A 2020-21 · Thu, Apr 22, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 46% | 47% | 2.12 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 28% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.75 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| SS Lazio −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 12' | ⚽ | Matteo Politano · SSC Napoli |
| 15' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Manolas · SSC Napoli |
| 29' | 🟨 | Lucas Leiva · SS Lazio |
| 42' | 🟨 | Fabián Ruiz · SSC Napoli |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 48' | 🟨 | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 53' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 65' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |
| 73' | 🟨 | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · SSC Napoli |
| 74' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · SS Lazio |
| 80' | ⚽ | Victor Osimhen · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 508.00 |
| 1847.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1773.40 | 1750.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.77 | 27.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.63 |
| league points | 60.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.24 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.77 | 30.52 |
| state index | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |