← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Apr 18, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Doveri
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 40% | 43% | 2.42 | value: +5% |
| SSC Napoli win | 32% | 29% | 3.19 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SSC Napoli +0.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| FC Internazionale Milano +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 46% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 54% | 1.97 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |