← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Apr 18, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Ghersini
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 72% | 74% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 17% | 5.89 | fair |
| Benevento win | 10% | 9% | 10.43 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio −1.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Benevento −1.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 61% | 1.49 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 39% | 2.76 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ (og) | Fabio Depaoli · SS Lazio |
| 20' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 35' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Montipò · Benevento |
| 37' | ⚽ (pen) | Joaquín Correa · SS Lazio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Marco Sau · Benevento |
| 48' | ⚽ (og) | Lorenzo Montipò · SS Lazio |
| 50' | 🟨 | Pasquale Schiattarella · Benevento |
| 53' | 🟨 | Kamil Glik · Benevento |
| 63' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas Viola · Benevento |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jean-Daniel Akpa Akpro · SS Lazio |
| 85' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Benevento |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| ⚽ |
| Kamil Glik · Benevento |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Parolo · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1843.00 | 687.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.79 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1825.35 | 1588.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.81 | -9.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 55.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 34.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.91 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 31.00 | 29.10 |
| state index | 1.29 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |