← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 17, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: P. Valeri
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 41% | 42% | 2.40 | fair |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 31% | 33% | 3.16 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 −0.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Cagliari Calcio −0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 52% | 55% | 1.87 | value: +4% |
| Under | 48% | 45% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand