← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 17, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Aureliano
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 36% | 43% | 2.80 | value: +20% |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 34% | 28% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.38 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| ACF Fiorentina +0 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 48% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 52% | 2.18 | value: +14% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Hamed Junior Traorè · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 15' | 🟨 | Gaetano Castrovilli · ACF Fiorentina |
| 28' | 🟨 | Nikola Milenković · ACF Fiorentina |
| 31' | ⚽ | Giacomo Bonaventura · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | 🟨 | Maxime López · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 68' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mert Müldür · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 75' | ⚽ | Maxime López · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 81' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
| 90' | 🟨 | Erick Pulgar · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1021.00 |
| 47.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1626.89 | 1585.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.23 | 2.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | -0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 43.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 4.89 | 5.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.75 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 23.33 | 24.96 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |