← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Apr 11, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 78% | 81% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.60 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 7% | 6% | 15.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC −1.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Juventus FC −1.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 67% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 33% | 2.66 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Dejan Kulusevski · Juventus FC |
| 20' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 22' | ⚽ | Álvaro Morata · Juventus FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Dejan Kulusevski · Juventus FC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Valon Behrami · Genoa CFC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Gianluca Scamacca · Genoa CFC |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nicolò Rovella · Genoa CFC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Domenico Criscito · Genoa CFC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Weston McKennie · Juventus FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 11 |
| 14 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 253.00 | 131.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1914.05 | 1643.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.62 | 4.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.94 | -1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| league points | 59.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 3.84 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.55 | 0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 2.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 1.60 |
| squad age | 29.97 | 30.25 |
| state index | 1.21 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.94 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |