← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 10, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Maresca
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 56% | 55% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.90 | value: +5% |
| Parma Calcio 1913 win | 19% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Parma Calcio 1913 +0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| AC Milan +0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 62% | 1.69 | value: +5% |
| Under | 43% | 38% | 2.28 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Ante Rebić · AC Milan |
| 10' | 🟨 | Mattia Bani · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 24' | 🟨 | Hakan Çalhanoğlu · AC Milan |
| 37' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Pezzella · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 38' | 🟨 | Riccardo Gagliolo · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 44' | ⚽ | Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 60' | 🟥 | Zlatan Ibrahimović · AC Milan |
| 63' | 🟨 | Juraj Kucka · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 66' | ⚽ | Riccardo Gagliolo · Parma Calcio 1913 |
| 78' | 🟨 | Theo Hernández · AC Milan |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Parma Calcio 1913 | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Ennio Tardini |
| 80' |
| 🟨 |
| Franck Kessié · AC Milan |
| 90' | 🟨 | Soualiho Meïté · AC Milan |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rafael Leão · AC Milan |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 99.00 | 557.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1570.57 | 1843.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.13 | -14.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.70 |
| league points | 20.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.13 | 7.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 29.34 | 26.23 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |