← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Pairetto
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 55% | 56% | 1.76 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 23% | 23% | 4.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio +0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| AS Roma +0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 64% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 36% | 2.63 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Stefano Turati · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 2' | 🟨 | Filip Đuričić · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 15' | 🟨 | Amadou Diawara · AS Roma |
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 44' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · AS Roma |
| 57' | ⚽ | Hamed Junior Traorè · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 69' | ⚽ | Bruno Peres · AS Roma |
| 85' | ⚽ | Giacomo Raspadori · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 87' | 🟨 | Rogério · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lukáš Haraslín · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bryan Cristante |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1007.00 |
| 672.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1617.40 | 1756.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.67 | -21.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.77 |
| league points | 39.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 16.96 | 12.72 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.39 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.99 | 26.30 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |