← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Di Martino
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 78% | 90% | 1.22 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 15% | 6% | 6.99 | fair |
| Crotone win | 7% | 4% | 14.35 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli −1.75 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Crotone −1.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 65% | 1.45 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 35% | 2.87 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Andrea Rispoli · Crotone |
| 19' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 22' | ⚽ | Victor Osimhen · SSC Napoli |
| 25' | ⚽ | Simy · Crotone |
| 34' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 48' | ⚽ | Simy · Crotone |
| 59' | ⚽ | Junior Messias · Crotone |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ahmad Benali · Crotone |
| 72' | ⚽ | Giovanni Di Lorenzo · SSC Napoli |
| 78' | 🟨 | Pedro Pereira · Crotone |
| 87' | 🟨 |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 28 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 5 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Diego Armando Maradona |
| Luis Rojas · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 489.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1842.18 | 1511.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.81 | -9.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.56 |
| league points | 53.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 12.72 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 0.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.76 | 28.93 |
| state index | 1.69 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |