← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 3, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Giua
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 64% | 70% | 1.55 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.60 | fair |
| Spezia win | 15% | 11% | 6.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Spezia −1 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 59% | 1.75 | value: +4% |
| Under | 44% | 41% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · Spezia |
| 30' | 🟨 | Andreas Pereira · SS Lazio |
| 56' | ⚽ | Manuel Lazzari · SS Lazio |
| 73' | ⚽ | Daniele Verde · Spezia |
| 77' | 🟨 | Joaquín Correa · SS Lazio |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Felipe Caicedo · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joaquín Correa · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Joaquín Correa · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟥 | Manuel Lazzari · SS Lazio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Agudelo · Spezia |
| 90' | 🟨 | M'Bala Nzola · |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 1828.00 |
| 642.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.14 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1734.08 | 1528.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.21 | -3.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.94 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 48.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 49.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 12.96 | 13.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 30.52 | — |
| state index | 0.81 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |