← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Mar 21, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Di Bello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 38% | 39% | 2.56 | fair |
| SSC Napoli win | 34% | 31% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| SSC Napoli +0 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 57% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 43% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Roger Ibañez · AS Roma |
| 27' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 34' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gianluca Mancini · AS Roma |
| 47' | 🟨 | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 59' | 🟨 | Amadou Diawara · AS Roma |
| 63' | 🟨 | Stephan El Shaarawy · AS Roma |
| 78' | 🟨 | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
| 85' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Villar · AS Roma |
| 90' | 🟨 | Victor Osimhen · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days |
| 659.00 |
| 476.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1774.86 | 1746.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.25 | 31.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| league points | 51.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 3.08 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.34 | 27.90 |
| state index | 1.00 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |