← Serie A 2020-21 · Sat, Mar 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Fourneau
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 53% | 40% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 32% | 4.08 | value: +32% |
| Crotone win | 22% | 27% | 4.80 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crotone +0.75 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Bologna FC 1909 +0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 50% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 50% | 2.28 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Cuomo · Crotone |
| 23' | 🟨 | Mitchell Dijks · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 32' | ⚽ | Junior Messias · Crotone |
| 38' | 🟨 | Adama Soumaoro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Simy · Crotone |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jacopo Petriccione · Crotone |
| 45' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 55' | 🟨 | Koffi Djidji · Crotone |
| 62' | ⚽ | Adama Soumaoro · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 70' | ⚽ | Jerdy Schouten · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 73' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 19 |
| 7 | On target | 10 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| 🟨 |
| Rodrigo Palacio · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 78' | 🟨 | Roberto Soriano · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 81' | 🟨 | Danilo · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 84' | ⚽ | Andreas Skov Olsen · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Łukasz Skorupski · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 88' | 🟨 | Vladimir Golemić · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 19.00 | 809.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1465.19 | 1580.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.36 | 20.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.83 |
| league points | 15.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.98 |
| state index | -0.72 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |