← Serie A 2020-21 · Sun, Mar 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Guida
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 43% | 53% | 2.31 | value: +22% |
| Crotone win | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 18% | 3.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crotone +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Torino FC +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 48% | 1.99 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Simy · Crotone |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jacopo Petriccione · Crotone |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alex Cordaz · Crotone |
| 45' | ⚽ | Rolando Mandragora · Torino FC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Simy · Crotone |
| 79' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Arkadiusz Reca · Crotone |
| 83' | 🟨 | Niccolò Zanellato · Crotone |
| 84' | ⚽ | Antonio Sanabria · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Ounas · Crotone |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 17 |
| 10 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| 🟨 |
| Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rolando Mandragora · Torino FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Tomás Rincón · Torino FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adam Ounas · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 6.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1451.12 | 1554.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.48 | 19.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.67 |
| league points | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 3.76 | 15.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.48 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 25.10 |
| state index | -1.44 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |